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Natural Gas Exploration and Development >

2022 , Vol. 45 >Issue 3: 67 - 74

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12055/gaskk.issn.1673-3177.2022.03.008

GASFIELD DEVELOPMENTGASFIELD DEVELOPMENT

A production risk quantification model for Carboniferous gas reservoirs, eastern Sichuan Basin

  • Yu Guo ,
  • Liu Haifeng ,
  • Li Haitao ,
  • Zheng Shu ,
  • Liu Linqing ,
  • Jing Lei
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  • 1. Planning Department, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan 610051, China;
    2. Exploration and Development Research Institute, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China;
    3. Sichuan Chuangang Group Corporation Limited, Chengdu, Sichuan 610017, China

Revised date: 2022-03-02

  Online published: 2022-11-07

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Abstract

Globally, the research on risk quantification of natural-gas production is still in its infancy, mainly due to certain uncertainty to select and quantify some sensitive factors as well as the lack of gas reservoirs with a complete development cycle as samples for verification. To fully understand the main factors affecting production risk in the developed gas reservoirs and provide theoretical basis for technical adjustment and EOR, taking 25 Carboniferous gas reservoirs in eastern Sichuan Basin as examples, a production risk quantification model for the Carboniferous gas reservoirs in eastern basin was innovatively established by using the Monte Carlo method. After compared with some existing quantification methods, the Monte Carlo method was recommended. Four decision-making risk factors were defined by analytic hierarchy process, including gas production rate in stable production period, stable production period, recovery efficiency at the end of stable production period, and average productivity of kilometer-deep wells, and the probability distribution curve of each factor and production was constructed by the multi-cycle Gauss probability distribution density function to clarify the main factors affecting the production risk. The formula for calculating the production in the stable production period was established as the objective function for Monte Carlo simulation. The maximum probability of production in these 25 gas reservoirs ranges from 43.43×108 m3 to 126.35×108 m3, and the cumulative probability from 14.59% to 92.88%. The study result represents a breakthrough in risk assessment from the qualitative to the quantitative.

Key words： Carboniferous; Gas production; Risk quantification; Monte Carlo method; Distribution probability; Cumulative probability; Density function

Cite this article

Yu Guo , Liu Haifeng , Li Haitao , Zheng Shu , Liu Linqing , Jing Lei . A production risk quantification model for Carboniferous gas reservoirs, eastern Sichuan Basin[J]. Natural Gas Exploration and Development, 2022 , 45(3) : 67 -74 . DOI: 10.12055/gaskk.issn.1673-3177.2022.03.008

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